2026 inbound tourism forecast
Released on:
27 August 2026
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2026 forecast
Please see the notes at the bottom of this page for methodological details, especially regarding International Passenger Survey data.
2026 forecast
- VisitBritain forecasts 44.2 million inbound visits to the UK in 2026, with these visitors spending £33.9 billion.
- Compared to 2025, this represents growth of 2% in both visits and nominal spending (1% decline in spending in real terms).
- VisitBritain estimates this to be 103% and 119% of the 2019 levels respectively, although spend will still be only 90% of the 2019 level when you adjust for inflation.
- European markets are forecast to grow by 4% in volume terms and 7% in value terms. However, long haul markets are forecast to decline by 3% in volume terms and 2% in value terms.
- This is a downgrade from the forecast issued by VisitBritain in January, when we were expecting 45.5 million visits and £35.7 billion spending; the new forecast is lower by 1.2 million and £1.8 billion respectively. However, the visits forecast is little-changed for European visitors, and the value of spending by Europeans was upgraded slightly from 6% to 7% growth. The downgrade is due to a much weaker performance from long-haul visitors; we were expecting to see 8% growth in spending from long haul markets in our January forecast but are now anticipating a 2% decline.
Summary of 2026 forecast
Overview: The first half of the year saw visits up by an estimated 1% (3% in the first quarter and a decline of 1% in the second quarter). Visits were up an estimated 4% from European markets but down 7% from long haul markets. We estimate that the value of visitor spending was around on par with 2025 in the first half of the year; average spend per visit was pushed down due to market composition effects, with lower arrivals from many high spending long haul markets.
Outlook and risks: Inbound flight arrivals for July and August look to be down on 2025, again with trends from European source markets outperforming long haul. The outlook for the autumn looks more promising. The Iran conflict is the major risk to the short term forecast, especially for long haul visitors. Although VisitBritain will not run a forecast for 2027 until the end of 2026, if the Iran conflict has ended and the associated economic pressure have eased then we would expect long haul markets to bounce back next year.
Economic context: Global economic growth is forecast to be 2.5% this year, a downgrade since the start of the year, and less than that seen in 2025 (3.0%). The US is forecast to grow 2.2%; the EU 1.1%. India (6.7%) and China (4.8%) are leading in growth terms amongst major economies, but the GCC is forecast to decline 5%. The elevated oil price has been a major determinant of slower economic prospects generally, and traveller behaviour in particular. Although the oil price is down from its spring highs, it is still much higher than at the start of the year, pushing up general inflation and dampening expectations of interest rate cuts, with an impact on disposable incomes. It has also pushed up jet fuel prices and thereby put upwards pressure on air fares. The average exchange rate against the pound is little-changed since last year.
Competitive view: The UK is likely to lose competitive share this year. Inbound arrivals to Western Europe are forecast to grow by 6% in 2026, with southern Europe performing especially well as many travellers avoid the Middle East. Globally, international arrivals growth of 4% is forecast (source: Oxford Economics).
Methodology and data comparability
2025: VisitBritain estimates that there were 43.6 million inbound visits to the UK in 2025, with these visitors spending £33.2 billion. Compared to 2024, this represented growth of 2% in visits and also 2% in nominal spending (spending 1% down in real terms). These numbers are subject to change when the Office for National Statistics releases data for 2025 and revised data for 2024.
The forecasts for 2025 and 2026 use as their base the 2024 figures from the International Passenger Survey by the Office for National Statistics available at time of writing. The Office for National Statistics made some changes to the methodology of the International Passenger survey in 2024. More details can be found on the ONS website. VisitBritain’s estimate for 2025 and forecast for 2026 are designed to be comparable to the 2024 IPS numbers at time of writing, although these are subject to revision.
Estimations of changes vs 2019 are VisitBritain’s modelling to enable comparison with previous years; the ONS are not endorsing comparisons with previous years. These comparisons are likely to change as the ONS release new data.
Due to methodological changes, we are at time of writing unable to use the official inbound statistics from the International Passenger Survey for 2025 to compare year-on-year with 2024 or previous years, so have had to use a variety of alternative data sources. We have access to high level Home Office data on border admissions by non-UK nationals (available to March at time of forecast), ForwardKeys / Amadeus flight data by country, and Visa card spending data by country.
Next update: VisitBritain will issue a revised estimate for 2026, and a forecast for 2027, around the turn of the year, and will also integrate the latest ONS data for 2024 and 2025.