Current Conditions 31 October 2014

The image below shows the latest status for a number of factors driving tourism. Based on an analysis of over forty different series, grouped into eight ‘segments’, the chart above clearly comes with a hefty health warning, with the ‘scoring’ of each factor being as much art as it is science.

To read more detail about transport, weather, tourism and economic news which is affecting current tourism conditions open each section in the links below.

CC Jul 14 image
Transport News
Transport
  • Heathrow Airport handled a record 6.58 million passengers in September, 0.3% up on a year ago, but of note transfer passenger volumes increased more quickly than terminating passenger volumes at 2.9% 

  • Gatwick Airport had its busiest ever September with passenger numbers up 7.7% on a year ago with growth across European Scheduled, North Atlantic and Other Long-Haul route segments 

  • Manchester Airport saw an annual 5.2% increase in terminal passengers during September 

  • Passenger volumes at Glasgow Airport during September were 2.4% up on a year ago while at Aberdeen volumes jumped 6.8% 

  • Heathrow Airport Holdings to sell Glasgow, Aberdeen and Southampton airports to Ferrovial and Macquarie for £1bn 

  • CityJet to axe flights between Glasgow and Cardiff at the end of October and reduce the number of flights it operates between Edinburgh and Cardiff

  • From late March bmi Regional will add additional flights to Bristol from Frankfurt and Munich and from Brussels to both East Midlands and Newcastle 

  • From April 2015 Jet2.com will fly twice weekly to Belfast International from both Rome and Prague 

  • From March 2015 Blue Air will fly twice weekly from Bacau (Romania) to Liverpool 

  • Between mid June and early September 2015 airtransat will operate twice weekly services from Halifax to London Gatwick via St John’s 

  • Flynas suspends long-haul flights to Gatwick from Jeddah and Riyadh 

  • United is to fly five-times per week from Newark to Newcastle between late May and early September 2015 using a 169-seat 757 

  • From late March 2015 Ryanair will fly twice daily from Copenhagen to London Luton    

  • From late March 2015 British Airways will fly twice daily from Bilbao to London Heathrow 

  • A strike by Lufthansa pilots results in cancellation of flights to Britain from Germany on 20 and 21 October

  • Strikes in Italy results in the cancellation of some flights to Britain on 24 October

  • During the period July to September Eurotunnel transported 3% more cars but 7% fewer coaches than a year before 

  • During the period July to September Eurostar transported 3% more passengers than during the equivalent period of 2013  

Weather
Weather
  • Unseasonably mild weather persists throughout much of October across the UK 

Domestic Economic News
Domestic Economic News
  • The UK economy grew at an annual rate of 3.0% in the three months to September 

  • In the three months to August UK unemployment fell to 1.97 million, the first time it has been below 2 million for six years 

European Economic News
European Economic News
  • Credit rating agency Standard and Poor's has cut France's credit outlook to 'negative', due to concerns about the country's struggling economic recovery 

  • The German government sharply cuts its economic growth forecast for both 2014 and 2015 citing a weaker than expected global picture 

  • German business confidence has fallen to its lowest ebb for more than two years

  • Moody’s downgrades Russia’s debt rating putting further downward pressure on the value of the Russian rouble 

  • The Swedish Central Bank cuts base rates to zero to try and prevent deflation becoming establsihed  

US Economic News
US Economic News
  • The US economy grew at an annual rate of 3.5% in the third quarter of 2014, ahead of market expectation 

Global Economic News
Global Economic News
  • Price of oil now 20% lower than it was in June 

  • The IMF cuts its global economic growth forecast for 2014 from 3.4% to 3.3%, citing weakness in Japan, Latin America and parts of Europe

  • Inflation in China falls to a five-year low but other data on exports and imports suggest that the economy and consumer spending remains in fairly good shape

  • Property prices fell 1.3% in China during September

  • Chinese GDP grew at an annual rate of 7.3% in the three months to September, the weakest performance since early 2009

  • Oxford Economics forecast that Brazil’s economy will grow by just 0.7% in 2014 while Russia will experience zero growth

  • South Africa has cut its forecast for economic growth in 2014 from 2.7% to 2.4%

Tourism News
Tourism News
  • According to STR Global London hotel supply increased 3.3% in September compared with a year ago while demand increased 4.6%.  This resulted in a 1.2% rise in occupancy to 89.4%.  Average daily room rates increased 0.9% to £154.24 with revenue per available room up 2.1% to £137.87 

  • According to STR Global the number of hotel rooms in the ‘In Construction’, ‘Final Planning’ and ‘Planning’ stages in Greater London stood at 17,370 at the end of September with the equivalent figure for Manchester 4,034 

Trends update

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2012 to 2014 editions of Trends Update